Since announcing its existence on Sunday, President Donald Trump has fervently attempted to spin the new preliminary cease-fire agreement his administration made with Iran over the weekend as a victory for the U.S. Hardly anyone believes this, and nobody should.

On the contrary, the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, the text of which was released to the media on Wednesday, ratifies the reality on the ground that it is Iran that won this war. In his haste to close the book on a misadventure with which he had become bored and frustrated months ago, Trump has made previously unimaginable concessions to the Iranian regime that underscore how utterly he has failed in this war to leverage American military supremacy to achieve any meaningful strategic goals.

The MOU is merely a framework for an eventual final deal, supposedly to be negotiated on an extendable 60-day timetable. It is often vague and in places contradictory, but overall its key provisions are remarkably advantageous to Iran.

The agreement provides for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with no charges on shipping but only for 60 days; after that, Iran’s lead negotiator suggested, Tehran might start charging “fees.” Trump on Sunday had claimed the strait’s toll-free opening would be permanent; as it turns out, perhaps not. Reopening the strait is good news for the oil market and the global economy in general, but let’s not forget: The strait was open before the war. Perhaps the most notable geopolitical consequence of this war is that Iran proved it can effectively close the strait with mines, drones, and other small-scale weapons the U.S. can’t entirely stop. That’s a major lever the Iranians can use to deter or fight back against future aggression by its adversaries, even without the added windfall of being able to charge fees for passage, perhaps forever.

The agreement also says the U.S. will terminate all sanctions on Iran once a final deal is reached and, in the meantime, issue waivers to enable Iran to resume exporting oil right away. The U.S. also commits to restore access to frozen and restricted Iranian assets “upon the implementation of this memorandum,” which seems to suggest this unfreezing will happen before the final deal is reached, though it’s not entirely clear. Once they are unfrozen, the MOU does make clear that there will be no restrictions on where or how........

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