CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

No Path Forward, No Way Back, Imperial Decline Edition

Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

When American politicians state that terrorism is a threat, what they need is a mirror and an introductory economics textbook to understand that there are many different ways to destroy a nation. From NAFTA to financialization to crypto grifts, the US has been led from one economic catastrophe to another by people claiming to know what they are doing. While you and I know that AI isn’t going to cause 50% – 60% of the jobs in the US to disappear, what astonishes is that this is considered an acceptable outcome by Donald Trump and the US Congress.

For context, the US unemployment rate at the worst point in the Great Depression was 25%. This led to mass protests, a dramatic rise in the fortunes of organized labor, the White House being surrounded by former soldiers wanting to be paid, and WWII. Most governments begin worry about political instability when unemployment rises to 10%. That Trump and Congress heard the 50% – 60% unemployment projection and still thought AI a brilliant idea is testament to an absence of political accountability. There is something deeply broken in US politics.

Graph: surprise, the class war is real. Illustrated is that capital’s share of national income (GDP) has been rising for five decades as labor’s share has been falling. Oligarchs own the capital stock. Labor owns labor. When payments to capital rise, oligarchs benefit. When payments to labor fall, labor loses. As the graph illustrates, labor has been losing in the US for fifty years. Source: economycharts.

Fifty percent unemployment would instantly overwhelm state unemployment insurance systems. These systems divide their perpetually underfunded pools between the number of people eligible to collect, meaning that no one would receive enough in insurance payouts to survive. Every town, city and state affected would be in full-on economic collapse within a few months. Car loans, student loans and mortgages would no longer be paid. The US would be in full-scale economic collapse within six months.

The political effect of this should in theory be analogous to handing someone an empty gun, telling them that it is loaded, and then forcing them to shoot their spouse. The spouse will live because the gun is empty. But the relationship will have ended the second that the trigger is pulled. Trust will have been permanently broken. With the predicted job destroying impact of AI, Donald Trump and the US Congress pulled the trigger. They are fine with the nation disappearing in a puff of smoke as long as their stock portfolios keep rising. If this reads like ‘America first,’ please chime in.

No government would withstand 50% employment without massive social upheaval. This implies that the current US leadership has no stake in the US beyond what can be extracted through looting. Should this read as harsh, you probably aren’t paying attention. The productivity math rigs the capital versus labor game. Through what are called hedonic adjustments, the value produced by capital (e.g. AI) is systematically overstated. The largest possible value is taken away from labor and assigned to capital.

While Trump has long claimed that he opposed NAFTA, the question now is why? 50% unemployment from AI would be far more socially destructive than NAFTA has thus far been. The ‘capital investment’ theory whereby AI represents an investment in the broader economy falls apart above 8% unemployment. The math has it that at 50% unemployment, a 200% increase in productivity would be needed to avoid an economic decline from AI. Last year, with AI in the mix, this value was 3%. This is not going to happen.

Moreover, the gains from AI (if there ever are any) would be directed to capital while the costs would be borne by the newly unemployed. This is Class Warfare 101. Trump and the ‘communists’ (his term) in Congress see their fortunes being bolstered by destroying the US. But they have the math all wrong. They imagine that the stock market would rise in the midst of 50% unemployment. What they should be imagining is every major city in the US being burnt to the ground by newly immiserated citizens. As the saying goes, three days without food and no government will stand.

Graph: between 1948 and the end of 2025, the annual rate of Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth fell from 4% to 2%. While this might not read as problematic, the US hasn’t prospered outside of finance and tech heavy cities since 1980 or thereabouts (46 years). And financialization means that houses that cost $100,000 twenty years ago cost $400,000 today after ordinary (CPI) inflation has been taken out. This is the flip side of crypto grifts and national stock market obsessions. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve.

The reason why the US is in this mess is because American leaders misread the unique position that the US was in at the end of WWII as evidence that capitalism actually works. What gave the US its economic prowess was geography, history and luck. By the end of WWII, industrial infrastructure abroad lay in ruins. Because the US was far away, lies between two oceans, and joined the war late, its industrial infrastructure was in better........

© CounterPunch