Photograph Source: Prime Minister’s Office – GODL-India

A strong economy is essential for becoming a superpower, a proven historical formula. India is projected to be the world’s second-largest economy by 2050, surpassing the U.S. However, obstacles remain. No region or country is actively supporting India’s efforts to overtake the U.S. as a global power. Even China would prefer a distant hegemon over a nearby one. Pakistan and even some Western nations oppose India becoming a superpower, a move that would give India a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, which India would rightfully demand and deserve, perhaps replacing the United Kingdom or France.

This commentary argues that the U.S. and India’s neighbors may actively hinder India’s rise as a superpower. The competitors and rivals have numerous options, including imposing tariffs and trade barriers, reducing the exports of Indian goods and services, withholding essential exports to India, and curtailing remittances from Indian workers. Suppose India continues to advance despite obstacles. In that case, some rivals might even encourage separatist movements in Khalistan, Kashmir, and the Northeastern states (Assam, Nagaland, and others), which have tenuous geographical, ethnic, and cultural ties to the mainland.

This analysis does not suggest a global conspiracy or active collusion against India. Instead, it highlights possible strategic moves within the contested space that India’s competitors and rivals recognize but do not openly voice, which is the most effective form of complicity. Though the comparison is somewhat unreal, just as the fall of the Soviet Union diminished Russia’s global influence and economic weight, strategies targeting India’s economy and territorial cohesion involve similarly high stakes. This article does not address whether India will succeed in overcoming resistance to become the second-largest global economy.

Western Perspectives

Geopolitical arguments that are valid in one era might not hold true in another. Consider three reasons why the Western perspectives on India’s rise as an economic superpower are no longer supported. Losing the active backing of Western allies would be a significant setback for India.

First, free trade faces growing pressure. In theory, nations buy and sell without tariffs or quotas. The World Trade Organization (WTO) rests on principles that promote open trade. Yet, India and other countries often seek to export more than they import to shield domestic industries. This protectionism, clashing with WTO ideals, is also expanding in the West and could cause substantial harm to India.

Second, Western policymakers once supported India’s trade privileges by pointing to its democratic credentials. That logic is losing relevance. In today’s competitive landscape, democracy does not entitle a country to concessions that undermine U.S. or European economies, just as autocracy no longer disqualifies trade partners when mutual interests align. The form of government is no longer decisive; what matters is the economic advantage.

Third, for decades, Western strategy rested on strengthening India as a counterweight to contain China. That policy is under review. India itself shows little willingness or capacity to shoulder that burden. Supporting India risks creating a rival that might outpace the U.S. If both China and India rise to occupy the top two spots in global economies, the U.S. would fall to third, with Western Europe even further behind. At that point, the world’s economic center of gravity would shift decisively eastward. Resisting India from overtaking the U.S. makes far more sense strategically than clinging to the illusion that India can restrain China, an unstoppable economic superpower. However, this clarity has not yet moved beyond doubt.

India By 2050

The idea that India will surpass the U. S. in its share of global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050 has attracted a lot of attention in long-term economic forecasts. GDP is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within a country for one year. Global GDP is the sum of all individual countries’ GDPs. In 2025, the U.S. accounts for about 25% of the world’s GDP, while India makes up roughly 4%. China is close to 18%. For now, India is far behind China and the U.S.

The likelihood of India........

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