Friedrich Merz has emerged victorious in a general election which saw dramatic changes in German politics – but given that his party is responsible for many of the country’s problems, a radical about turn looks unlikely, says Rainer Zitelmann

Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) emerged victorious in Germany’s general election, securing 28.6 per cent of the vote. However, this is a weak result given the failings of the previous Green and Social Democrat-led government (in a three-way coalition with the free-market FDP, which failed to exert any influence). This marks the second worst election result in the history of the Christian Democrats, with only an eight percentage-point lead over the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which gained 20.8 per cent of the vote.

Friedrich Merz had promised to cut the AfD’s share of the vote in half. Instead, the party’s support doubled compared to 2021, increasing from 10.4 per cent to 20.8 per cent, while Merz’s party gained just 4.4 percentage points. Merz has paid the price for failing to distance himself sooner and more decisively from the legacy of Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor from 2005 to 2021. In policy terms, Merz has gradually reshaped the Christian Democrats’ stance on a range of issues, particularly migration.

But every time the CDU/CSU criticised Germany’s migration policy, the AfD was able to reply: “But it was the CDU/CSU who started all this under Merkel in 2015”. The most interesting statistic from election night revealed that, when........

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