Trump’s tariffs have thrown markets into chaos, but how will US earnings season be affected? Ian Whittaker lays it out in today’s Notebook

Tariffs leave firms with prisoner’s dilemma amid US earnings season

The thunderbolt that was the Trump Administration’s steeper than expected tariff plans has played havoc with the markets, but the rubber will hit the road with Q1 results season. We have already had a taster of things with Blackrock CEO Larry Fink saying that the US may be very close to, if not already in, a recession while JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon said its Q1 results last week that there was a 50-50 chance of recession. The Q1 results themselves will not be impacted by the impact of tariffs given the announcement came after the end of (most) companies’ reporting period. But analysts and investors will be looking for the nuances in every comment and statement – even more so than usual – as to the impact on company earnings. So, what should we expect?

Certainly, from an analysts’ perspective, the expectation is of dramatically lowered earnings growth. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 for 2025 now stand at 9.4 per cent, versus 12.5 per cent at the start of the year. Things were already looking gloomier anyway, especially for........

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