It might feel like a lifetime ago, but it was just last week analysts began talking about fuel rationing in Australia.

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This week, that prospect seems less likely. A temporary ceasefire in the Iran war has been announced, even as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese heads off to Singapore - a crucial refinery hub - to firm up fuel supplies.

United States President Donald Trump has pledged a two-week ceasefire, while Iran has pledged safe passage for ships through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent of the world's oil is shipped.

Does this mean the fuel crisis is over? Not by half. In its response to US-Israeli bombing, Iran didn't just block the strait - it targeted the oil and gas infrastructure of its neighbours. Repairs will take months.

Serious fuel shortages are now hitting many nations hard - especially poorer ones such as the Philippines, Pakistan and Thailand.

Australia is in a better position, as it is wealthier and can pay more for fuel. As a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal, it also has leverage with the Asian nations who refine most of Australia's liquid fuels.

This will help in the short term. Longer term, the energy vulnerability this crisis has exposed has to be solved by winding down reliance on oil imports.

A ceasefire, not an end

Iran announced the closure of the strait the day the war began, February 28. Over the following 37 days, nations have scrambled to try to find alternate supplies or workarounds to avoid the bottleneck of the Strait of Hormuz.

Even if the ceasefire holds, it won't magically resolve the oil crisis. Tightness of supply will persist for months. The war has effectively removed about 11 million barrels a day from the market - roughly halving the flow of oil through the strait, according to shipping data.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as Iran has promised, it won't mean shipping can instantly return to pre-war levels.

Damage to oil refineries and pipelines in many countries will limit supply, while insurance rates and shipping costs may remain prohibitively high for some........

© Canberra Times