The tariff-truce clock is ticking – and global markets are grinding their teeth. In less than two weeks, President Trump will decide whether to extend the temporary pause on China tariffs, and that call alone may dictate the trajectory of trade flows, capital markets, and even whether a Trump-Xi summit materialises later this year.

For now, the financial world is suspended in a strange mix of anticipation and denial. The so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, announced earlier this year, triggered the kind of global panic not seen since the peak of Covid-era disruptions. Then came a rebound, timed perfectly with a temporary pause. Now the same pattern looms again. Trump threatens. Markets tremble. Then retreat follows. But this time, the bluff may be harder to sustain.

The Stockholm talks last week produced the first formal signal of an agreed extension, at least from the Chinese side. Beijing’s trade negotiator declared the pause was being prolonged, but the US Treasury delegation quickly qualified the statement, insisting that nothing is final until President Trump signs off. In this administration, that’s more than a legal formality, it’s a policy variable.

The deadline is August 12. If Trump grants another 90 days, it clears the path for a face-to-face meeting with Xi later in the year. If he doesn’t, then the 15-30........

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