With the tariff reprieve deadline behind us and the long-promised Trump-Xi phone call still nowhere on the calendar, global markets are once again squinting at the smoke and worrying about another, bigger fire. President Trump, in a late-night Truth Social post, called Xi Jinping “extremely hard to make a deal with” — not exactly the tone of a self-styled, delusionally confident dealmaker still expecting surrender.

And it might not be just bluster this time. Behind the posturing, investor confidence is clearly slipping. Liberation Day tariffs are live again in the background, and no one really knows what comes next.

The immediate question is what happens if that elusive Trump-Xi phone call never happens. Washington says it expects one this week. Beijing hasn’t confirmed anything. And the market is left guessing. Meanwhile in Geneva, last month’s tariff truce is already fraying. US officials claim China hasn’t delivered on commitments related to rare earths. Beijing accuses the US of imposing new discriminatory restrictions, including fresh export controls on AI chip tools and revoking student visas.

And round and round it goes all over again.

In trade terms, the landscape is a minefield. The US is now actively blocking shipments of jet engine parts to China and tightening curbs on Huawei. And Trump’s approval of Nippon Steel’s $14 billion acquisition of US Steel has only inflamed domestic opposition, with American labour unions accusing the administration of selling out jobs and........

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