India and Pakistan have significantly upgraded their military capabilities since the nuclear-armed neighbours clashed in 2019, posing increased risks of escalation even in a limited conflict, former military officers and experts say.

In 2019, India carried out air strikes inside Pakistan after the bombing of an Indian military convoy in IIOJK and said it destroyed “terrorist camps”. Pakistani jets conducted a retaliatory air strike and shot down an Indian aircraft during actions spread over two days.

The neighbours have fought three wars - in 1948, 1965 and 1971 - and clashed countless times since gaining independence, mostly over the Kashmir region which both claim. Both acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s and Kashmir is considered one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world.

Military experts say neither side will consider nuclear weapons unless pushed to the wall, but even a limited conflict would carry high risks of escalation.

They say such a conflict is likely to involve aircraft, missiles or drones, where India and Pakistan are considered closely matched, although India’s far greater resources would come into play over a longer period.

“Decision makers in both states now have a higher risk appetite for conflict initiation and escalation than prior to 2019,” said Frank O’Donnell, a non-resident fellow at the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, a think-tank in Washington, as they had managed then to clash without nuclear weapons being used.

“But without a clear mutual sense of the precise actions, that could trigger inadvertent........

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