In the twentieth century, oil and its accessibility were one of the greatest geopolitical advantages a nation could have. Oil dictated wars, alliances, and the global balance of power. Nations rose or fell, fought or allied, all for a resource buried beneath desert sands and ocean floors. The world today, however, has drastically changed.

A critical new resource is subtly redefining international relations—minerals, specifically rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and nickel. These minerals are the driving force behind technologies powering electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and advanced weaponry, making them indispensable to the new global order. Thus, a consequential shift has emerged: critical minerals now dictate global realignments, with nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths forming the new geopolitical currency.

China wisely anticipated this transition decades ago. Beijing now processes almost 90 percent of the world’s rare-earth elements (REE), controlling nearly three-quarters of global cobalt refining. China also leads global lithium production chains. Securing strategic agreements from Latin America’s “Lithium Triangle” to cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, China has positioned itself securely ahead in a geopolitical race reminiscent of OPEC’s dominance over oil markets.

The US, in an effort to counterbalance this strategic deficit, seeks to reverse China’s dominant position. Trump issued new executive orders to ramp up US domestic production immediately after taking oath, explicitly to limit dependency on Chinese imports; he also aimed to augment economic diplomacy to secure vital minerals abroad. Under President Trump’s revived administration, America comes with a renewed international relations doctrine—it is demanding mineral access openly, using executive orders and bilateral agreements to push transactional diplomacy; a stark departure from his predecessors’ approach.

On 30 April 2025, the US and Ukraine formally signed their anticipated deal centered around minerals. In this minerals-for-investment agreement, the US gained priority access to Ukraine’s critical minerals in exchange for capital and reconstruction support. Despite Kyiv’s initial demand for security guarantees, the finalized pact provided none. The Ukrainian parliament unanimously ratified the deal, wishfully thinking higher US commercial stakes would bolster lasting peace and deter Russian aggression; none of that has happened so far.

The deal,........

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