The first three quarters of 2024-25 have come to an end. This is the appropriate time for reviewing the state of the economy, as the federal and provincial budgets will be presented towards the end of the next quarter.

Further, it is essential to get an assessment as to how Pakistan’s economy has performed in relationship to the quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets of March 2025 in the IMF Programme.

The state of the economy presented below will first look at the indicators of the growth performance and the level of investment in the economy. This is followed by examination of the process of stabilization in the economy.

Factors contributing to the quantum decline in the rate of inflation are identified and an assessment made of the likely rate of inflation in coming months.

Trends in the external balance of payments and in the public finances are subsequently studied. Information on the first three quarters of the balance of payments has been made available by the SBP. However, the outcome of fiscal operations up to March 2025 has not yet been released by the Federal Ministry of Finance.

We focus first on indicators of growth. The major crops sub-sector in agriculture has performed poorly. There is a decline in both wheat and cotton outputs. In the latter case, there has probably been a fall in production of over 28%.

The performance of the large-scale manufacturing sector has also been........

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