Pakistan stands at a pivotal energy crossroads. With global momentum pushing toward a post-oil world by 2050[1], as envisioned under the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero 2050 mandate, the country has a narrowing window, of perhaps 25 years at most, to reduce its dependence on costly imports, responsibly exploit its hydrocarbon resources, and use these revenues to support a just and sustainable energy future.

Petroleum will not be the future, but it remains the present. And unless urgent reforms are undertaken, Pakistan risks missing the last opportunity to extract strategic value from its own resources or attract investment to become energy independent.

Despite vast reserves and strategic geography, Pakistan’s oil sector, which spans exploration, refining, and retail, is chronically underdeveloped. The fiscal and regulatory environment is a key reason.

The country’s current petroleum framework is misaligned with investor expectations and global best practices. Front-loaded taxation, complex regulatory processes, policy inconsistency, and limited risk-sharing deter upstream exploration.

Downstream, the outlook remains challenging. While domestic refineries continue to operate with obsolete technology and low throughput, OMCs are navigating regulated margins, circular debt exposure, and infrastructure bottlenecks; yet continue to invest in expanding retail footprints, upgrading storage, and modernizing distribution systems to ensure supply chain resilience.

Historically, though it has been a journey of 166 years only, oil has single-handedly changed the globe. From the pulsating rockets being launched into darker realms of space, to the cell phone connecting us to the world, our dependency on petroleum is undeniably significant. From the first commercial oil well being drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859, and modest beginnings as a source of kerosene for lamps, petroleum evolved into the lifeblood of modern civilization, powering transportation, electricity generation, and serving as feedstock for countless industrial processes.

The early 20th century saw the industry dominated by the “Seven Sisters” — major Western oil companies that........

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