Argentine consultancies are starting to publish economic forecasts for 2025 — and there are some surprises. PxQ, the firm led by former Deputy Economy Minister Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, has assigned a higher likelihood to the optimistic scenario than to the base scenario for the first time since 2017. Analysts broadly agree that GDP will grow, inflation will decelerate, and consumption will recover. However, the exchange rate remains the biggest question mark.

Both critics and staunch libertarians agree: the tax amnesty was a game changer. The segment of the government program facing the greatest challenges in the second half of the year — critical to disinflation and the government’s positive image — was the exchange rate. The government, however, managed to build a bridge.

According to PxQ, this development allows Javier Milei to envision 2025 without external imbalances threatening

© Buenos Aires Herald