The war with Iran is burning the clock on President Donald Trump’s chances for a reset with voters on the economy. And that increases the odds that his 2026 messaging will focus on disqualifying Democrats with polarizing wedge issues — a strategy that has mostly, though not entirely, failed for other presidents.

As the midterm primaries get underway, the biggest problem for Republicans is that most voters don’t believe Trump has made much progress, or even sufficiently focused, on the problem they elected him to solve: high prices. In national polls, Trump’s approval rating on the economy usually runs around 40% or below. That’s a stark contrast from his first term, when it rarely fell below 50% after his first few months.

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