One can look at oil and the Middle East through two lenses. Magnify every detail from the attacks on Iran and its responses and a chaotic picture emerges. When the market reopens on Sunday night, oil prices are likely to jump 10%-15% as a result. But seen from a wider angle — looking broadly at the global economy — the energy picture does not appear as scary, even if Brent crude does jump to, say, $80-plus a barrel.

First, an obvious disclaimer. The situation is fluid, and for the oil market everything depends on how Tehran responds to the US-Israeli strikes in the coming hours. But after the first day of hostilities we can draw a few tentative conclusions based on the unlikelihood of the type of full-blown oil shock we’ve seen in the past, and the decent supply of barrels of oil currently available. The biggest market fear is the targeting of energy infrastructure (or not) by both sides, and the enforced closure of tanker routes. Neither has happened. Yet.

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