You might have heard that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is going to leave poor countries starving. That’s not quite right. The reality may be almost as serious, though — and China will be the victor.

The theory stems from the importance of the Persian Gulf in the world’s fertilizer trade. Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC — particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman — are key to supplies of two of the three most important crop nutrients.

© Bloomberg