Paul Ehrlich’s Population Predictions Were Wrong. And Harmful
If during his last days American biologist Paul Ehrlich had followed events in Singapore, he would have heard something remarkable. Fertility fell to a record low last year, confounding efforts to shore it up. Politicians described the development as an existential challenge.
Ehrlich, who saw population control as vital to humanity’s viability amid a deteriorating environment, was proven wrong. Not only is humankind doing pretty well, leaders in some of the most successful economies want the opposite of what the Stanford University professor prescribed: more babies. China, South Korea, Japan and many European nations are wrestling with ultra-low birthrates and shrinking labor markets. Combined with the swelling ranks of seniors, these forces promise to reshape workplaces, tax systems, immigration and defense.
