The Polish, and the rest of Europe for that matter, are bracing themselves for an explosion of cross-border organized crime activity with the end of the conflict in Ukraine (which now seems closer than ever). Poland’s President Andrzej Duda is warning about such an “explosion” of crime within Ukraine with the end of the war, and is calling on Kyiv’s allies to provide it with “massive support”. Moreover, Duda is worried, as he said in an interview to the Financial Times, that this could spill across the border into his own country, and also affect the rest of Europe and even the United States, with migration waves and transnational mob activity.

The situation reminds the Polish leader of Russia in the early nineties, after Soviet collapse, when organized crime gangs of the so-called “Vor” subculture were able to recruit veterans of the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan. The Ukrainian soldiers, in the present situation, would go back home to find a ruined economy. “Just recall the times when the Soviet Union collapsed and how much the organised crime rate went up in western Europe, but also in the US”, said Duda.

Duda should be taken seriously: The Ukrainian mafia gangs are major players in international crime including the dope trade, prostitution and weapons trafficking. In addition to that, Transparency International ranked Ukraine at 104 out of 180 countries in its 2023 corruption index. Ukraine’s level of corruption is similar to what one may find in Uganda, for instance.

There is another reason why Duda’s warning makes sense: it implies that the end of the conflict could be near........

© Blitz