“The hard truth is that the Caucasus doesn’t reward rigid alliances. As Azerbaijan’s spat with Russia shows, even close partners (however complex that partnership is) can clash without upending the board. Armenia’s future lies not in choosing a camp, but in mastering the art of balance”

In recent years, Armenia has been steadily inching toward the European Union (EU) and NATO, a shift that has raised eyebrows in a region long defined by delicate geopolitical balancing acts. Earlier this year, in an underreported development, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan signed a Charter on Strategic Partnership with former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Moreover, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s signals of intent to pursue EU membership and his decision to distance Armenia from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) mark a bold pivot. Meanwhile, across the border, Azerbaijan has sharpened its criticism of Russia following the tragic downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in December 2024, which some attribute to Russian air defenses.

Baku has vocally criticized Moscow over the December 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash, which claimed 38 lives after the aircraft veered off course and was shot near Grozny. Some, including Azerbaijani officials, point to Russian air defenses, citing the plane’s proximity to a war zone and reports of Ukrainian drone activity that may have triggered a jittery response.

Azerbaijan’s push for accountability is understandable, but the incident also reflects the chaos of a region caught in the Ukraine conflict’s spillover, where blame isn’t easily assigned without risking escalation. It should be noted however that even Baku, for now, balances its outrage with a pragmatic stance, preserving ties with Russia, Turkey, and the West to maintain its leverage.

These developments underscore a turbulent moment in the South........

© Blitz