In a dramatic and uncertain turn in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the first direct negotiations between Kiev and Moscow since 2022 are set to take place in Istanbul. The long-anticipated meeting comes amid fresh diplomatic posturing, a shifting tone from the United States, and growing speculation about the sincerity of both parties in pursuing peace.

On May 15, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at a NATO foreign ministers’ gathering in Antalya, Türkiye, outlined the United States’ position: open to any framework that leads to peace, but insistent on diplomacy over warfare. “We are open to being constructive and helpful in any way we can to end the conflict,” Rubio said. “There is no military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This war is going to end not through a military solution but through a diplomatic one.”

This marked a clear articulation of Washington’s stance and appears to reflect US President Donald Trump’s growing desire to draw down the war effort in Ukraine-a conflict that has drained Western political will and deepened global economic divides. Rubio’s comments came just as delegations from Russia and Ukraine were expected to sit down for their first face-to-face discussions in over two years.

Trump’s own statements reinforced this pivot. From Doha, Qatar-where he was on a regional tour-the US president said he would consider adjusting his Middle East itinerary to attend the talks if circumstances required it. “If something happened, I’d go on Friday if it was appropriate,” Trump told reporters on the morning of May 15. He emphasized, “It has to stop,” calling again for peace and expressing cautious optimism that the two sides might find common........

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