The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria last month has sent ripples through the Middle East, sparking intense debates about its wider geopolitical implications. Analysts and policymakers are grappling with the consequences of this dramatic development, with some suggesting it marks a seismic shift in the region’s balance of power. While Iran appears to be the primary loser in this scenario, the idea of a new hegemon-whether Israel, Türkiye, or another actor-emerging to dominate the Middle East remains contentious.

For much of the past two decades, Iran has been a key player in the Middle East’s multipolar power structure. The US’s gradual retrenchment from the region provided Tehran with opportunities to expand its influence through a network of allies and proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. Assad’s Syria was a cornerstone of this strategy, offering Iran not just an ally but a vital corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon and a platform for broader regional influence.

However, Assad’s fall represents a severe blow to Iran’s regional ambitions. As Lina Khatib of Chatham House argues in Foreign Policy, this development could signify the “end of the Iran-dominated regional order.” Without Syria, Iran’s ability to project power in the Levant is significantly diminished. Furthermore, Israel’s recent military campaigns against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have further weakened Tehran’s sphere of influence, underscoring its inability to support multiple fronts simultaneously.

While Iran has suffered setbacks, both........

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