Tensions in the Middle East have once again exposed a familiar pattern in international politics: great powers attempting to shift the burden of conflict onto regional allies. As the confrontation with Iran intensifies, the United States appears increasingly eager to involve the Arab Gulf states directly in the conflict. Yet the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries – including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – have shown clear reluctance to be drawn into another destabilizing war in their neighborhood.

Recent remarks by US Senator Lindsey Graham illustrate the pressure being placed on the region. Speaking forcefully about Iran, Graham warned that Gulf states could face “consequences” if they refused to confront Tehran militarily. His comments were widely interpreted as a signal that Washington expects its regional partners to shoulder a larger share of the confrontation with Iran.

From the perspective of the Gulf states, however, this war is neither their choice nor necessarily in their interests. Many leaders across the region believe that escalating the conflict with Iran would bring devastating consequences, particularly because Iran is not a distant rival but a powerful neighbor across the Persian Gulf.

Political scientists often refer to “buck passing” as a strategy in which a powerful country attempts to shift the responsibility of confronting a rival onto its allies. Instead of bearing the full cost of military confrontation, the major power encourages or pressures regional partners to take the lead.

Critics argue that Washington’s approach toward Iran reflects this logic. The United States has significant military capabilities and global reach, yet the political cost of another Middle Eastern war is high. After decades of conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, American public opinion is deeply skeptical about large-scale military involvement in the region.

In this context, encouraging Gulf states to take the lead offers an attractive alternative. If regional powers fight Iran directly, the United States could maintain influence while limiting its own casualties and financial burden. Washington could provide intelligence, weapons, diplomatic backing and logistical support without committing to a full-scale war.

For Gulf governments, however, such a scenario raises serious concerns.

The geographic reality of the Gulf region means that any large-scale conflict with Iran would unfold practically on their doorstep. Iran sits across the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf, and many Gulf states lie within range of Iranian missiles and drones.

This proximity makes the potential consequences of war far more severe for regional actors than for distant powers. Critical infrastructure – including oil facilities, desalination plants, ports and financial hubs – could become immediate targets in a conflict.

The memory of past regional wars reinforces this fear. The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, which was initially expected by many to be a short conflict, dragged on for eight devastating years. Millions were killed or displaced, and the economic damage to the region was enormous.

For Gulf leaders, this historical precedent serves as a warning. A conflict that begins as a limited military confrontation could quickly spiral into a prolonged and destructive war.

Another source of frustration among Gulf states is the perception that Washington is attempting to portray them as already involved in the conflict. Reports have circulated suggesting that the US administration has at times implied that Arab states are participating in attacks on Iran.

There have also been claims and counterclaims regarding missile launches and responsibility for certain incidents. In one case, Iran reportedly accused the United Arab Emirates of involvement in an attack on a desalination facility. Abu Dhabi swiftly rejected the allegation.

Such incidents have heightened concerns that Gulf states could be dragged into the conflict through misinformation, misinterpretation or deliberate political maneuvering.

From the perspective of many Gulf leaders, being falsely associated with military actions against Iran could provoke retaliation and undermine their efforts to maintain neutrality.

To understand the current tensions, it is necessary to examine the historical relationships between the United States, Iran and the Arab Gulf states.

Before the Iranian Revolution of 1979, both Iran and several Gulf monarchies maintained close ties with Washington. Iran, under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was considered a key pillar of American strategy in the region. The Gulf monarchies, meanwhile, relied on US security guarantees and economic partnerships.

The revolution dramatically changed this dynamic. Iran’s new leadership adopted an openly anti-American stance, while the Gulf states deepened their security cooperation with Washington in response to perceived threats from Tehran.

For decades, this triangular relationship created a delicate balance. Iran sought leverage through regional influence and military capabilities, while Gulf states relied on American power as a deterrent.

Today, however, the situation is more complex. The Gulf states are pursuing increasingly diversified foreign policies, expanding economic and diplomatic relations with countries such as China and Russia. As a result, they are less inclined to follow Washington’s lead unquestioningly.

Domestic politics in the United States also play an important role in shaping Washington’s strategy.

Public support for another major Middle Eastern war appears limited. Many Americans remain wary after years of costly military interventions. Critics frequently argue that new conflicts in the region are driven by geopolitical rivalries or external pressures rather than direct national security threats.

Because of this skepticism, the involvement of regional allies could serve as a way to justify American participation. If Gulf states are seen as requesting US assistance against Iran, Washington could frame its actions as defending allies and protecting global energy security.

However, if the Gulf states refuse to participate in the conflict, it becomes harder for US policymakers to build a convincing narrative for military escalation.

This dynamic may explain why some analysts believe Washington is eager to demonstrate Arab support for confronting Iran.

Another concern among Gulf governments is the possibility of being blamed for the conflict itself.

In political debates and media discussions within the United States, some commentators have suggested that American military actions in the region are intended to defend Gulf interests. Such claims can shift responsibility for the war onto Arab states.

For Gulf leaders, this presents a dangerous scenario. If the war becomes unpopular in the United States, domestic critics might argue that American soldiers are fighting primarily to protect Gulf monarchies.

At the same time, Iran could accuse those same Gulf states of collaborating with Washington and Israel against Tehran. In this sense, the Gulf countries risk becoming scapegoats on multiple fronts.

Recognizing these risks, many Gulf states have chosen a strategy of cautious neutrality and diplomacy.

One important development in this regard was the Beijing-brokered agreement in March 2023 that restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of tension. The deal was widely viewed as a significant step toward regional de-escalation.

Although differences between Tehran and the Gulf states remain profound, the agreement demonstrated that dialogue is possible. Many regional leaders believe that maintaining open communication channels with Iran is essential for preventing crises from spiraling out of control.

Qatar’s former prime minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem Al-Thani, has also publicly urged Gulf states to avoid entering a war with Iran. His comments reflect a broader sentiment within the region that military confrontation would be disastrous.

The implications of a Gulf-Iran war would extend far beyond the Middle East.

The Persian Gulf is one of the most critical energy corridors in the world. A large portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption to shipping routes could trigger severe economic consequences worldwide.

Moreover, the involvement of major powers such as the United States, Russia and China could transform a regional conflict into a broader geopolitical crisis. Both Moscow and Beijing have expressed support for diplomatic solutions and criticized military escalation.

If the conflict were to expand, it could deepen global divisions and destabilize already fragile international relations.

For these reasons, Gulf states appear determined to maintain a balanced approach. While they strongly oppose attacks on their territory or infrastructure, they also recognize that a full-scale war with Iran would likely produce catastrophic consequences.

Instead, their strategy focuses on strengthening defensive capabilities while simultaneously promoting diplomatic engagement.

By refusing to be drawn into a broader confrontation, the Gulf states hope to prevent the region from sliding into a devastating conflict that could last years.

The current tensions between the United States, Iran and the Gulf states reveal the complex dynamics of modern geopolitics. Washington’s apparent effort to encourage regional allies to confront Iran reflects both strategic calculations and domestic political realities.

Yet for the Gulf states, the risks of war with a neighboring power far outweigh the potential benefits of aligning with a distant superpower’s military campaign.

History offers a sobering reminder of how quickly regional conflicts can escalate and how long they can endure. The Iran-Iraq war stands as a stark example of how initial expectations of a short confrontation can evolve into years of destruction.

As a result, many Gulf leaders are choosing pragmatism over pride. Their cautious neutrality, combined with efforts to keep diplomatic channels open, may ultimately play a crucial role in preventing a wider war.

In an increasingly fragile international environment, restraint and diplomacy may be the only viable path to avoid another catastrophic conflict in the Middle East – one that could reverberate across the entire world.

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