Tensions in the Middle East have once again exposed a familiar pattern in international politics: great powers attempting to shift the burden of conflict onto regional allies. As the confrontation with Iran intensifies, the United States appears increasingly eager to involve the Arab Gulf states directly in the conflict. Yet the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries – including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – have shown clear reluctance to be drawn into another destabilizing war in their neighborhood.

Recent remarks by US Senator Lindsey Graham illustrate the pressure being placed on the region. Speaking forcefully about Iran, Graham warned that Gulf states could face “consequences” if they refused to confront Tehran militarily. His comments were widely interpreted as a signal that Washington expects its regional partners to shoulder a larger share of the confrontation with Iran.

From the perspective of the Gulf states, however, this war is neither their choice nor necessarily in their interests. Many leaders across the region believe that escalating the conflict with Iran would bring devastating consequences, particularly because Iran is not a distant rival but a powerful neighbor across the Persian Gulf.

Political scientists often refer to “buck passing” as a strategy in which a powerful country attempts to shift the responsibility of confronting a rival onto its allies. Instead of bearing the full cost of military confrontation, the major power encourages or pressures regional partners to take the lead.

Critics argue that Washington’s approach toward Iran reflects this logic. The United States has significant military capabilities and global reach, yet the political cost of another Middle Eastern war is high. After decades of conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, American public opinion is deeply skeptical about large-scale military involvement in the region.

In this context, encouraging Gulf states to take the lead offers an attractive alternative. If regional powers fight Iran directly, the United States could maintain influence while limiting its own casualties and financial burden. Washington could provide intelligence, weapons, diplomatic backing and logistical support without committing to a full-scale war.

For Gulf governments, however, such a scenario raises serious concerns.

The geographic reality of the Gulf region means that any large-scale conflict with Iran would unfold practically on their doorstep. Iran sits across the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf, and many Gulf states lie within range of Iranian missiles and drones.

This........

© Blitz