As the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth summer, the prospect of peace remains elusive. Despite renewed diplomatic efforts by US President Donald Trump, who has returned to the Oval Office with the promise of brokering a settlement, both Ukrainian and Russian forces remain locked in a devastating stalemate. On the surface, the conflict appears intractable. Yet beneath the surface, quiet diplomacy is underway – and it could pave the way for a peace deal that ends the violence while upholding international norms and Ukraine’s sovereignty.

The war, which began in earnest in 2022 but has its roots in Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, has become a grinding war of attrition. On both sides, the human cost is staggering. Russia has reportedly lost nearly 800,000 troops killed or wounded. Ukraine, for its part, endures relentless aerial bombardment, with much of its east and south left in ruins. Millions of civilians have been displaced, and two major ports – once vital to Ukraine’s economy – remain shuttered.

President Trump, who has made headlines by pledging to end the war quickly through negotiation, has already engaged key players. He has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and dispatched his envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Moscow. US national security officials have also held talks in Jeddah with their Ukrainian counterparts. Yet the road to peace will be long and complex. If a truly lasting settlement is to be achieved, it must rest on two essential pillars: a just resolution that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty, and robust security guarantees that prevent future aggression.

At the heart of any meaningful agreement must be Ukraine’s right to territorial integrity. Since 2014, Russia has occupied Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, claiming sovereignty over regions it has seized through force. However, the international community must not reward such aggression with formal recognition. The precedent this would set – that borders can........

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