Steve Witkoff’s recent visit to Moscow has exposed a critical shift in the diplomatic landscape surrounding the Russia–Ukraine war. While fighting on the ground remains ferocious, an equally intense political battle is unfolding between Washington and the Kremlin. What became clear during Witkoff’s talks is that Moscow remains absolutely committed to entrenching its control over captured Ukrainian territories, and the current diplomatic format, conducted largely between the United States and Russia, pointedly excludes both the European Union and Ukraine’s own senior leadership. The absence of Kyiv and Brussels from negotiations that could define Ukraine’s future carries profound strategic implications, not least because it risks translating military gains into political concessions without the direct consent of those most affected.

This diplomatic imbalance unfolds against a backdrop of growing instability inside Ukraine. A spate of corruption cases and the shock of President Zelenskiy’s resignation have visibly demoralised the Ukrainian military, eroding the unity and confidence that once sustained the country’s defence effort. Morale is increasingly brittle at a time when Russia has seized the momentum on the battlefield, pushing deeper into Ukrainian territory where defensive lines are thinner and political direction uncertain. The crisis of governance in Kyiv reinforces the perception that Ukraine’s ability to prosecute a long war is diminishing, which in turn shapes the calculations of external actors seeking a negotiated settlement.

The United States’ renewed interest in resolving the conflict through diplomacy rather than an indefinite commitment to arming Ukraine is driven by a blend of........

© AzerNews