A few days ago, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium announced the resumption of the loading process at the Novorossiysk Terminal following an interruption which caused, at its peak, the daily crude oil production of Kazakhstan to be reduced by half from 2.16 million barrels a day to just over one million due to the inability to export the crude oil. The interruption was caused by Ukrainian drone attacks, which have become a 'customary phenomenon' for a while. Within hours of the resumption process, two ships, Seamajesty and Milos, were docked and loading Tengizchevroil volumes. Chevron, which produces the oil in the Tengiz field that goes through the CPC pipeline, indicated that it is keeping an eye on the development. Astana felt relieved.

What is not over and what has in fact been rendered impossible by the recent events is the conversation about the future of the country’s oil export policy. Over 80% of all crude oil shipped abroad via pipeline from Kazakhstan passes through the CPC Pipeline, which runs 1,510 kilometers from the Tengiz field through Russia to Novorossiysk – the oil port on the Black Sea, where tankers load the product and distribute it to Europe and Asia. This arrangement worked for almost three decades. It was economical, cost-effective, and the geopolitical framework underlying it, which included a predictable but demanding transit partner in Russia, had stayed largely stable until February 2022. These premises ceased to be valid in February 2022. Russians did not conduct the recent strikes against the port. They were the Ukrainian attack on a Russian oil port in wartime.

The alternative that needs an upgrade

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline stretches 1,768 kilometers, runs only within the territory of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye, and ends in the port of Ceyhan located in the........

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