Unfortunately, not every diplomatic initiative survives contact with the diplomacy that follows it. It sounds so eye-catching and laudable in a way; it kind of feels too good to be true. Among the more telling moments at the Shusha Global Media Forum this week was the question nobody expected to produce a significant answer. The "3 3" Format - three South Caucasus states plus Türkiye, Russia and Iran, conceived in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 war as a framework for regional self-governance, has gathered "dust on the shelf" of post-conflict ideas for the better part of four years, overtaken by bilateral deals, American brokerage and the sheer pace of events on the ground.

Azerbaijan's own proposal, floated in late 2021 as a vehicle for regional countries to manage regional affairs without external referees and barely convened. When a journalist in Shusha this week asked President Ilham Aliyev whether it was still alive, the question itself carried the answer. "I think no one has returned to this topic for a long time," Aliyev said, with the equanimity of a man who has moved on.

The South Caucasus has reached the point where it is in a period of multipolar competition; everyone from Washington to Beijing to Riyadh has a stake in its future, right when its own leaders are making the most important decisions for it. This is not chaos, although there are aspects of this as well. Instead, it is flux, calculated and quick, in a place........

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