Since the Gulf crisis, most countries have reevaluated their energy security policies and the methods for delivering energy supplies. Moreover, "it is very likely that the geography and existing infrastructure of Azerbaijan will become even more important than before", as the Azerbaijani President said in his interview with Euronews. This deliberate choice of words, such as "very likely" or "most likely," speaks volumes, as it reflects the mind of a politician who knows precisely what he wants to say yet does not want to sound too categorical about it. What he really wants to say is that Europe has been through three months of energy emergency when Azerbaijan was especially ready to overcome it, and now the queue of countries awaiting its turn in Baku will only grow.

The state of the European gas market when entering May 2026 was one that would not have come as a surprise to those familiar with conditions back in 2022. The price for TTF futures stands around €50 per megawatt hour, representing a year-on-year rise of about 38%, and is close to reaching six weeks of highs. All this happens amid Hormuz closure, very low storage levels (35.85%), and the imminent end of gas from Russia, which is no longer an issue of threats and promises but of a deadline set by law. The immediate prohibition on Russian LNG imports has become effective since 25 April, while pipeline gas agreements should be terminated by 17 June. The complete embargo on Russian gas comes into effect in September 2027.

How does the supply market look?

In the first quarter of 2026, Europe’s leading gas suppliers include the United States, Russia, Norway, Algeria, and Azerbaijan, with significant financial contributions reflecting their varying trajectories. The U.S. tops the list with €4.8 billion in LNG purchases, benefitting from spare terminal capacity amid disruptions from Hormuz and Russia, marking a sharp growth. Russia follows at €3.2 billion, witnessing a decline of 1.5 times year-on-year as it faces an LNG ban effective April 25 and a full prohibition by September 2027. Norway remains stable at €2.74 billion as Europe's most reliable source with a consistent........

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