The upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara is shaping up to be far more than another gathering focused on defense budgets. As leaders of all 32 member states prepare to convene in Türkiye on July 7-8, the alliance finds itself navigating one of the most complex strategic environments since the end of the Cold War. While the commitment to increase defense spending remains a central pillar of the agenda, the broader questions confronting NATO run much deeper: the future of Ukraine, the credibility of transatlantic unity, Europe's growing push for strategic autonomy, and Washington's evolving global priorities.

The 2026 summit builds upon commitments made at last year's meeting in The Hague, where allies agreed to raise annual defense spending to five percent of GDP by 2035, replacing the long-standing two percent benchmark adopted in 2014. Since then, European allies and Canada have significantly expanded their defense investments, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has already indicated that billions of dollars in new defense-related contracts are expected to be announced in Ankara.

Yet military spending alone will not determine the summit's success.

Russia's continued war against Ukraine remains at the center of NATO's security agenda, but recent developments have also exposed broader political tensions within the alliance. Diverging approaches to the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, renewed debates following President Donald Trump's remarks regarding Greenland, and growing differences between Washington and several European capitals over long-term strategic priorities have fueled concerns about the alliance's cohesion.

These divisions extend beyond government circles. Recent polling has shown declining confidence among Americans that European allies would come to the United States' defense if necessary, underscoring the growing........

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