The Great Tariff Mystery

When taxing an imported product begins creating politically uncomfortable consequences, the solution repeatedly turns out to be…taxing it less.

Peter C. Earle | September 4, 2026

What do coffee, beef, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, cocoa, tea, spices, tropical fruit, fertilizer, potash, automobiles, auto parts, smartphones, computers, and Chinese manufactured goods have in common? Quite a lot, as it turns out.

Over the past year and a half, the Trump administration imposed or expanded tariffs affecting every one of them. Depending upon the product and country of origin, the additional duties ranged from 10% or 25% to considerably higher levels. And then something curious happened: tariffs on all or substantial portions of those goods were reduced, suspended, exempted, offset, or removed.

But not because tariffs raise prices. Certainly not.

Coffee, tea, cocoa, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, beef, spices, tropical fruits and fruit juices were among the agricultural products removed from the administration's reciprocal tariffs in November 2025. The White House explained that the decision reflected, among other considerations, “current domestic demand” and America’s “current domestic capacity to produce certain products.” In other words, Americans consume things America either does not produce or cannot produce in sufficient quantities. (Apparently geography, climate, and scarcity survived Liberation Day.)

Potash provides another mystery. Canadian and Mexican imports were initially hit with 25% tariffs in March 2025. Within days, qualifying USMCA potash was exempted altogether, while the tariff on non-qualifying potash was cut from 25% to 10%. Presumably this was because American farmers had suddenly developed an intense appreciation for Canadian mineral deposits. It could not have been because making a major fertilizer input 25% more expensive........

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